The epidemic has brought prosperity to the consumer electronics industry, and the demand for LSI chips such as CPUS and Gpus has doubled. As a result, the capacity of large-size FC-BGA substrates has been in a state of shortage, leading to the lack of supply from manufacturers of packaging substrates. Fc-bga substrate is out of stock because its core material ABF (Ajinomoto build-up Film: Ajinomoto stacking Film) is out of stock. Because the packaging substrate manufacturers in Mainland China are still in the initial stage, there is no large-scale packaging substrate enterprises, the main production capacity is concentrated in the hands of overseas large factories, the outbreak of demand leads to the imbalance between supply and demand. On this occasion, the mainland PCB manufacturers seize the historic opportunity, have the next layout package substrate project.
The epidemic has brought prosperity to the consumer electronics industry, and the demand for LSI chips such as CPUS and Gpus has doubled. As a result, the capacity of large-size FC-BGA substrates has been in a state of shortage, leading to the lack of supply from manufacturers of packaging substrates. Fc-bga substrate is out of stock because its core material ABF (Ajinomoto build-up Film: Ajinomoto stacking Film) is out of stock. Because the packaging substrate manufacturers in Mainland China are still in the initial stage, there is no large-scale packaging substrate enterprises, the main production capacity is concentrated in the hands of overseas large factories, the outbreak of demand leads to the imbalance between supply and demand. On this occasion, the mainland PCB manufacturers seize the historic opportunity, have the next layout package substrate project.
It is understood that since the end of 2020, the lack of core tide in the global spread, and more intensified. As the demand has not been reduced, resulting in the shortage of increasingly serious, so that the gap between supply and demand is gradually enlarged, and the strong demand for chips, directly caused by the packaging substrate market demand explosion, the relevant enterprises directly burst orders, the delivery cycle continues to elongate. According to the relevant person in charge of the manufacturer, the current order of FC-BGA substrate has been arranged to 2023, and the delivery cycle is within half a year. Therefore, we are trying to improve the technical level as soon as possible and release the capacity as soon as possible.
“At present, the continuing shortage is still in digital chips, especially active chips used in the ABF extension FC-BGA. So the capacity of FC-BGA is actually not that fast, because its investment capital is relatively high, and it requires a lot of process experience before it can produce.” The personage inside course of study points out. According to the data, packaging substrate products are diversified. In terms of demand distribution, fC-BGA /PGA/LGA are the main products of packaging substrate market in 2020, and the domestic market size is 3.317 billion yuan. Prismark, however, expects the global output of FC-BGA/PGA/LGA packaged substrates to reach $5.286 billion in 2024, with a cagR of 9.12%.
The above industry insiders said that FC-BGA capacity will be slightly released in 2022, but very limited, the industry last year’s capital increase and production expansion projects, their large-scale release of capacity, it is estimated that next year or two. So the FC-BGA will remain tight until 2023, 2024 and beyond. Recently, Zeng Zizhang, chairman of Xinxing, said on the Taiwan Circuit Board International Exhibition that it is expected that in the next 2-3 years, the board is as prosperous as the semiconductor. Among them, BT board will reach the supply balance in 2024, and ABF high-end board supply will be tight until 2026.
Opportunities and challenges for domestic packaging substrate enterprises
Because of the high technology entry barrier, packaging substrate market is highly concentrated. For a long time, the capacity of packaging substrate has been firmly controlled by the international large factories, according to statistics, the top ten suppliers occupy more than 80% of the market share, the top three suppliers Xinxing Electronics, Ibiden and Samsung electromechanical market share of about 36%. At present, manufacturers are still fighting in the red sea of PCB, and the field of packaging substrate is still in the stage of making efforts to catch up. The main suppliers are Shennan Circuit, Xingsen Technology, Zhuhai Yueya, etc., accounting for 4%-5% of the global packaging substrate market.
However, in recent years, the capacity of domestic and local packaging enterprises has gradually improved and developed rapidly. Although the overall capacity is still small, more and more enterprises have begun to transform and upgrade. It is reported that in 2021 packaging substrate demand has exploded, in the context of capacity in short supply, the domestic packaging substrate market also ushered in a great opportunity to accelerate the speed of domestic enterprises to packaging substrate layout, both player expansion pace is firm, new players are also pouring in.
It is worth noting that since overseas manufacturers are also intensively expanding production in the same period, after the concentrated release of capacity, will domestic enterprises be squeezed? To this, the personage inside course of study expresses, everybody’s production capacity is concentrated release wants to wait a few years later. The current PCB is equivalent to PCB 10 years ago or earlier, and now the output value of domestic PCB has accounted for 60% of the world, the board only accounted for less than 10% of the share, there is still a lot of space for domestic replacement.”At present, although the competitiveness of domestic enterprises is weak and the production capacity has not been fully released, with the advancement of localization, domestic manufacturers will still eat this market”. “The insider added.